TARIFFS STATE OF PLAY: CHINA Tightens Restrictions on Rare Earth Exports to USA Among Tariff Retaliations
WASHINGTON (MaceNews) – In what analysts have said is a measured response, intended not to further escalate U.S.-China trade tensions, China nevertheless Tuesday has imposed some significant new penalties. Chief among them are export controls on several rare-earth minerals important to the U.S. manufacture of high-tech products. They include indium, bismuth, molybdenum, tellurium and tungsten. […]
US ISM Manufacturing Back in Growth at Start of 2025, Waking Up from More Than 2 Years of Doldrums on Cyclical Pickup in New Orders, Output, Jobs
–ISM Manufacturing Index at 50.9 Vs. 49.2 in December, Again Well Above Consensus (49.5)–ISM’s Fiore: Upward Help from Seasonal Adjustments in January 2025 Half of Those in January 2024–Fiore: Trump Tariffs Won’t Help US Firms; Doesn’t Make Sense to Pay Duties on Own Goods Made in Canada, Mexico–Fiore: Demand for US Manufacturers Sees Cyclical Rebound […]
Preview: Japan’s Goldilocks Economy to Post Modest 0.3% Q/Q GDP Growth in Q4 as Consumers Stay Frugal amid High Costs, Exports Sluggish in Face of Struggling China, Slowing US
By Max Sato (MaceNews) – Japan’s gross domestic product for the October-December quarter is forecast to post its third consecutive growth but a sluggish 0.3% rise on quarter, or an annualized 1.3%. The main growth driver came from a rebound in net exports that was caused by a fall in imports and masks weak exports […]
Preview: Bank of Canada Set to Slow Its Rate Cut Pace to 25 Basis Points Wednesday While Seeking Shelter from Imminent US Import Tariff Storm
By Max Sato (MaceNews) – The Bank of Canada is widely expected to trim its policy interest rate – the target for overnight lending rates – by a “more gradual” pace of 25 basis points to 3.0% on Wednesday in a pre-emptive move to help shield the economy from the threat of stiff tariffs on […]
Japan’s Government Keeps Modest Economic Recovery Outlook as Trump Takes Office with No Clear Date for Stiff Tariffs on Imports from Canada, Mexico, China
By Max Sato (MaceNews) – Japan’s government maintained its overall assessment that the economy will stay on a “modest recovery” track as elevated costs for food and other essentials have eroded real wages and firms and markets brace for Trump tariffs on U.S. imports from its close trading partners. In its monthly report for January […]
UPDATE: Fed Officials Take Cautious Approach to Further Rate Cuts As Late Jan FOMC Nears
– Harker Still Sees Rates Heading Lower; But Now ‘Appropriate To Take A Pause’ – Collins Calls for ‘Patient Approach to Policy’; Cuts Could Go Faster or Slower – Schmid: Funds Rate May Already Be ‘Neutral;’ Favors Further Balance Sheet Shrinkage – Bowman Urges ‘Caution;’ Monetary Policy Not As Restrictive As Some Think By Steven […]
ISM: US Services Sector Expands for 6th Straight Month in December on Robust Business Activity, with Boost from Seasonality, Preparation for Possible Trump Tariffs
–ISM Services Index at 54.1 in December Vs. 52.1 in November, Above Median Forecast 53.2–ISM’s Miller: Fed Likely to Pause in Rate Cuts in Face of 2nd Straight Quarterly Growth in Services Sector, Creeping Costs–Miller: Firms Concerned About Expected Drag from Trump Tariffs on Canadian Product Supply By Max Sato (MaceNews) – The U.S. services […]
Fed Gov. Cook, Other Fed Officials Tread Carefully on Monetary Policy Outlook as 2025 Begins
By Steven K. Beckner (MaceNews) – Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook joined other Fed officials Monday in opening the new year with ambiguous comments about the outlook for monetary policy. Cook, like several colleagues, gave no indication she is eager to resume interest rate reductions in 2025, preferring to wait to see how inflation and […]
US December ISM Manufacturing Shows Signs of Pickup on Demand Side but Layoffs Continue Until Yearend
–ISM Manufacturing Index at 49.3 Vs. 48.4 in November, Well Above Median Forecast of 48.5–ISM’s Fiore: ‘We Are Concerned’ About Trump Tariff Threat as It Would Cause Supply Chain Confusion–Fiore: ISM Set to Rise Above Neutral Line of 50 in Q1, ‘If Not In January, Probably in February’–Fiore: Not Much Price Pressure; December CPI, PCE, […]
Japan’s Government Still Sees Modest Economic Recovery Despite Sluggish Consumption, Flat Real Wage Growth Amid Food-Led Inflation
By Max Sato (MaceNews) – Japan’s government maintained its overall assessment that the economy’s “modest recovery” is set to continue despite sluggish consumer spending and flat real wage growth amid high costs for food and other necessities. In its monthly report for December released Friday by the Cabinet Office, the government said the economy is […]