Japan Still Sees Gradual Economic Recovery Despite Trump Tariffs; Trade Conflicts Continue Clouding Outlook amid Front-Loading Purchases, Pullback in Demand
By Max Sato (MaceNews) – Japan’s government remains cautiously optimistic, sticking to its long-held conviction that the economy should be able to weather both external shocks on already sluggish growth and a cost-led surge in domestic inflation, repeating it is expected to stay on a “modest recovery” track. In its monthly report for June released […]
Japan Weekahead: Producer Inflation Seen Slowing Further on Falling Fuel Prices as PM Ishiba, Opposition Leaders Set to Debate High Costs, US Trade Talks amid Snap Election Chatter
By Max Sato (MaceNews) – Here are the key Japanese economic and political events for the coming week. REVISED 1Q GDP REPORT –Monday, June 9, 2025 0850 JST (2350 GMT/1950 EDT Sunday, June 8) The Cabinet Office releases revised (second preliminary) GDP for January-March Mace News median: -0.2% q/q (range -0.5% to -0.1%) vs. prelim […]
Bank of Canada Pauses for 2nd Straight Meeting amid Trade War Uncertainty; Focused More on Firmer-Than-Expected Core Inflation, Sturdier GDP Growth
–BOC Keeps Policy Rate at 2.75% After 7 Rate Cuts Totaling 225 Basis Points from June 2024 Until March 2025–Governor Macklem: Only Forward Guidance Is: ‘Proceeding Carefully,’ Less Forward-Looking Than Usual–Mackem: CAD Weakness Lifted Import Costs but Recent Rebound to 72-73 Cents Vs. USD Should Reverse It By Max Sato (MaceNews) – The Bank of […]
ISM: US Services Sector Posts 1st Contraction in 11 Months in May as Trade War Sparks Supply Chain Chaos
–ISM Services Index 49.9 Vs. 51.6, Well Below Consensus (52.0)–ISM’s Miller: Weak PMI Not Indicative of Severe Contraction but Caused by Uncertainty–Miller: Firms Cautious About Placing Orders Until Trade Tariff Impact Becomes Clearer By Max Sato (MaceNews) – The U.S. services sector slipped into contraction in May after growing for 10 months, hit by significantly […]
Preview: Japan Q1 GDP’s 0.7% Annualized Drop Seen Unrevised, 1st Contraction in 4 Quarters Caused by High Costs of Living, Falling Real Wages
–Q1 Slump Led by Technical Pullback in Net Exports, Flat Consumption Despite Solid Capex Gain–Q2 GDP Likely to Post 2nd Straight Drop as High Costs for Food, Energy Linger, Exports Sluggish amid Trade Rows By Max Sato (MaceNews) – The second reading of Japan’s GDP data is expected to confirm that the wobbly domestic economy […]
Preview: Bank of Canada Seen Keeping Policy Rate at Nearly Neutral 2.75%, Staying Cautious Until Trade War Fog Clears Up
By Max Sato (MaceNews) – The Bank of Canada on Wednesday is largely expected to maintain its policy interest rate – the target for overnight lending rates – at a nearly neutral level of 2.75%, pausing for the second straight meeting until bank officials can figure out exactly how trade conflicts are hurting growth and […]
Fed Officials Still Pursuing Monetary Policy ‘Patience’ in Face of Trade Uncertainty
– Some Talk of Eventual Rate Cuts; Others More Reticent By Steven K. Beckner (MaceNews) – Federal Reserve officials have continued this week to express caution about changing monetary policy from the “moderately restrictive” stance it has been in since the Fed completed 100 basis points worth of short-term interest rate cuts in December. President […]
US ISM Manufacturing Stays in Contraction in May as Trade Rows Keep Outlook Uncertain, Causing Supply Chain Chaos
–ISM Manufacturing Index at 48.5 Vs. 48.7 in April, Below Consensus at 49.1–ISM New Chair Spence: Agree with Predecessor Fiore that US Economy Not Yet in Recession but PMI Moving in That Direction–Spence: Manufacturing Sector Will Continue Struggling Until There is More Certainty Over US Trade Policy–Spence: Layoffs Main Option for Firms as They Reduce […]
Fed Officials Still Hopeful About Economy, In No Rush to Cut Interest Rates
– Divergent Views Have Emerged But for Now Officials United on Need For Patience By Steven K. Beckner (MaceNews) – As the Federal Reserve approached its mid-year monetary policy meeting, Fed officials have given few signs this week that they are prepared to change their “moderately restrictive” interest rate settings any time soon. While officials […]
Japan Keeps Gradual Economic Recovery Outlook Against Global Trade War, Domestic Inflation Headwinds
By Max Sato (MaceNews) – Japan’s government continued to put on a brave face on the global trade war and politically explosive food price inflation, maintaining its cautiously optimistic domestic economic outlook for the ninth straight month, saying the economy is expected stay on a “modest recovery” track. In its monthly report for May released […]