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Contact Mace News President
Tony Mace tony@macenews.com 
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Tony Mace

President
Mace News

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Denny Gulino

D.C. Bureau Chief
Mace News

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Steven Beckner

Federal Reserve
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Vicki Schmelzer

Reporter and expert on the currency market.
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Suzanne Cosgrove

Reporter and expert on derivatives and fixed income markets.
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Laurie Laird

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Max Sato

Reporter, economic and political news.
Japan and Canada
Mace News

FRONT PAGE

FOMC TEXT: No Rate Change with Three Dissents In Favor of a Rate Hike

WASHINGTON (MaceNews) – The following is the text of the Federal Open Market Committee policy statement issued a short time ago Wednesday afternoon:The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 9 – 3 vote:

The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 9 – 3 vote:

The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate. The Committee is continuing its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.

Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East. Productivity growth and capital investment are strong. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.

Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee’s 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy. The Committee will deliver price stability.

Voting against the monetary policy action were Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie K. Logan, who preferred to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting.

Japan Government Keeps Gradual Economic Recovery View as Fuel Subsides Cap Inflation, Spreading Wage Hikes Prop Up Confidence

–Government Continues to Warn About Mideast Conflict: It May Cause Widespread Consumer Goods Markups Beyond Energy Prices

By Max Sato

(MaceNews) Japan’s government remains confident that its fuel and utility subsidies as well as solid wage hikes by many firms should support the economy’s gradual recovery from the pandemic slump while warning that higher energy costs amid the lingering Mideast conflict could trigger widespread markups in consumer prices.

In its monthly report for July released Wednesday by the Cabinet Office, the government maintained its overview, saying that the economy is “recovering at a moderate pace but the impact of the situation in the Middle East needs a close attention.”

As for the near-term outlook, the government repeated, “The improvement in the employment and income conditions and the effects of various (fiscal) policies are expected to support a moderate recovery while the impact of the situation in the Middle East needs a close watch.”

The report didn’t mention the powerful 7.1-magnitude earthquake that shook Kumamoto Prefecture in southwestern Japan on Tuesday, killing at least 13 people and injuring many more while damaging roads and cutting off electricity and water supply. It prompted automakers like Toyota and Honda and chipmakers including Renesas and Tokyo Electron to suspend production in the region for a few days. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. was gradually resuming operations at its Kumamoto factory after a precautionary suspension.

Judging from the impact of a disaster of this magnitude in recent years, the earthquake and aftershocks in the Kyushu region could cause a supply chain disruption on a national level for growth-leading industries and dent consumer and business sentiment.

The report came two days before the Bank of Japan’s policy decision. The bank’s nine-member board is widely expected to stand pat at its July 30-31 meeting but it has said that it will follow up with a further adjustment to what it sees as a still stimulative policy interest rate level. At its previous meeting on June 15-16, the board decided to raise the target for the overnight interest rate to 1% from 0.75% in a 7 to 1 vote (the governor was absent due to illness), citing growing upside risks to inflation triggered by the Mideast conflict.

The bank is in no hurry raise rates as inflation expectations among firms are still around its 2% price stability target and subsidies and other fiscal measures are expected to continue to offset some of the upward pressures on consumer prices. The next rate hike, a sixth in the current normalization process, is expected to take place in October or December.

The government revived temporary subsides for electricity and natural gas to help curb utility bills from July through September when extreme summer weather is expected to boost the usage of air conditioners across the country. It is also keeping a lid on the retail prices of gasoline and other fuels by applying subsides since mid-March in light of the Iran war and scrapping the decades-old gasoline surcharge at the end of 2026.

Consumer inflation accelerated slightly in June due to a smaller drop in gasoline prices and larger markups in other fuels, which limited the impact of a continued moderation in processed food markups. The year-on-year increase in the core CPI (excluding fresh food) accelerated to 1.6% after being unchanged at 1.4% in May and decelerating sharply to a four-year low of 1.4% in April from 1.8% in Mach, data from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications showed.

All three key CPI measures remain below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, thanks to fuel subsides and free high school education, both of which are partly offsetting the impact of rising costs of imports due to the weak yen, labor amid widespread worker shortages and transportation and packaging triggered by the U.S.-Iran military conflict.

On the other hand, the Bank of Japan’s own core CPI (excluding fresh food and institutional factors) rose 2.7% on the year in June after the annual rate eased to 2.7% in May from 2.8% in April. The institutional factors are: the effects of sales tax rate changes, free education, fuel and utility subsidies, reduction in mobile phone charges in 2021 and travel subsidy programs during the pandemic.

The BOJ’s another core measure, the CPI minus fresh food, energy and institutional factors, continued to slow to a 2.0% increase in June from 2.1% in May and 2.2% in April. The annual rate of the government’s core-core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) stood at 1.7%, easing further from 1.8% in May and 1.9% in April.

The sharp depreciation of the yen compared to a year earlier is also generating a headwind for Japanese households and businesses as it makes imports more costly. The June trade data showed Japanese import values rose for the fifth straight month, surging 25.2% to a record ¥11.34 trillion, following a 9.8% increase in May. The gain was driven by higher purchases crude oil (volumes were down), computer chips and non-ferrous metals. Import values of crude oil rebounded 59.3% on the year in June, ending many months of decline (vs. -28.5% in May).

The government maintained its core assessment of global growth. “The world economy continues to show gradual recovery while some regions are showing weakness,” it said, “However, the uncertainty over the global economy including the situation in the Middle East continues.” Last month, it said the uncertainty was “growing.”

Japan sees the U.S. economy as “expanding moderately” after upgrading its view for the first time in more than two years in the June report. The official views are unchanged for the Eurozone, which is “showing signs of a pickup” and for China that is still “slowing gradually.”

Key points from the monthly report:

The government maintained its core assessment of private consumption that accounts for about 55% of the GDP, saying that it is “showing signs of a pickup.”

Real average household spending posted the sixth straight year-on-year drop in May but the pace of decline was a slight 0.4% (consensus -2.3%) as the effects of a pullback in automobile purchases and a drop in domestic traveling were partly offset by strong demand for air conditioners amid hot weather and ahead of April 2027, when the government is scheduled to introduce stricter energy saving standards. The firmer-than-expected May spending, which rose 1.4% in nominal terms, was also due to higher costs of funerals and widespread markups in private university tuition fees.

Autos and related items, a widely fluctuating category, pushed down overall spending by 2.30 percentage points after raising April expenditures by 1.42 points. Excluding home maintenance and repairs and other volatile items like vehicles and gift money, the core measure actually rose 2.6% (up 4.3% in nominal terms) after falling 2.0% (down a nominal 0.5%) the prior month.

The strength was also seen in the seasonally adjusted expenditures index, which surged 3.7% on the month to a 12-month high of 101.7 in May after rising 1.6% to 98.1 in April and falling 1.3% to 96.6 in March.

Real income growth is subdued in the face of elevated costs for daily necessities, although processed food price hikes have continued to ease and subsidies have capped fuel price rises. The May report showed spending on foodstuffs marked the first increase in four months in real terms, up 2.4% on year (+6.0% in nominal terms), as people spent more on restaurant meals and takeout food. Rising stock markets and substantial wage hikes by large firms appear to have propped up consumer sentiment.

Industry data released last week showed department store sales posted their sixth straight year-on-year rise June, up 2.3%, but the pace of increase decelerated from 8.3% in May and 5.2% in April in light of rainy and typhoon weather. There was also one less Sundays (four) compared to June last year, which also led sales to domestic customers to mark their first drop in 11 months (-0.2%).

On the upside, the weak yen kept sales to visitors from overseas above year-earlier levels for the fourth consecutive month, up 29.8%, following a 16.7% gain in May. Solid spending by those from Southeast Asia and Europe continue. Even spending by Chinese shoppers rose about 16% to record its first year-on-year increase in seven months, although the number of those from China was still down 25% as many of them are bypassing Japan at the request of Beijing over bilateral diplomatic rows.

The monthly Economy Watchers Survey, which was conducted by the Cabinet Office from June 25 to June 30 and released on July 8, indicated that confidence continued to improve, thanks to easing in Mideast tensions at the time as well as robust spending by visitors from overseas taking advantage of the weak yen and by affluent domestic consumers amid rising stock prices. There is also solid demand for semiconductors and air conditioners.

The Watchers’ sentiment index showing the direction of Japan’s current economic climate rose slightly to a four-month high of 44.0 in June on a seasonally adjusted basis, posting the second straight rise after rising to 43.6 in May from 40.8% in April. Before the impact of the Iran war emerged, the index climbed to a nearly two-year high of 48.9 in February from 47.6 in January. The last time the index was above the neutral line of 50 was in March 2024, when it was at 50.1.

The Watchers’ outlook index, which shows sentiment in two to three months, marked the third straight increase, rising to 45.7 in June from 40.7 in May and 39.4 in April. The index started the year at 50.1 before slipping to 50.0 in February and plunging to 38.7 in March.

The government also maintained its assessment of exports after upgrading it for the first time in 16 months in June, saying they “have shown signs of a pickup.”

Trade data released last week showed Japanese export values rose at a faster-than-expected pace of 19.3% on the year to ¥10.93 trillion in June for the 10th straight rise after rising a revised 16.8% in May as the base effect of high U.S. tariffs on autos and metals has faded and global demand for computer chips and non-ferrous metals remains strong. The June increase was led by automobiles, computer chips and non-ferrous metals, largely as seen in recent months. The June export amount was the second largest after the record high of ¥10.98 trillion in March 2026.

The government continues to describe industrial production as being “flat.”

Japan’s industrial production for June, due on July 31, is expected to post its third straight rise in June, up a modest 0.5% on the month, possibly led by a pickup in the auto sector as the base effect of stiff U.S. tariffs on vehicles and metals has waned. It also mirrors strong export demand for computer chips and non-ferrous metals. It would follow a downwardly revised slight 0.1% gain in May and a 0.5% rebound on a 0.4% dip in March.

Last month, the monthly survey by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry indicated that output would rise 2.6% on the month in June, led by a rebound in the production of equipment to produce flat panel displays, general machinery to make analytical instruments and electric/telecom products (laptop computers), all of which dropped in May. Factory output was projected to be flat in July.

Other details:

The government’s assessment of key components of the economy in the monthly economic report:

Private consumption is “showing signs of a pickup but softer consumer sentiment needs a close watch” (unchanged; upgraded in September 2025; downgraded in February 2024).

Business investment in equipment and software is “picking up” (unchanged; upgraded in April 2026; downgraded in November 2023).

Housing construction “has a weak undertone” (unchanged; upgraded in August 2024; downgraded in August 2025).

Public investment is “solid” (unchanged: upgraded in April 2026; downgraded in December 2025).

Exports are “largely flat” (unchanged; upgraded in June 2026; downgraded in July 2025).

Imports are “largely flat” (unchanged; upgraded in May 2025; downgraded in November 2025).

Industrial production is “flat” (unchanged; upgraded in May 2024; downgraded in Oct 2024).

Corporate profits are “showing signs of improvement but the Mideast situation needs a close watch” (unchanged; upgraded in February 2026; downgraded in August 2025).

Business sentiment is “largely flat but firms are cautious about their outlook and thus the situation in the Middle East needs a close watch” (unchanged; upgraded in December 2023; downgraded in April 2025).

The pace of increase in bankruptcies is “largely flat” (unchanged; upgraded in June 2026; downgraded in October 2025).

Employment conditions are “showing signs of improvement” (unchanged; upgraded in June 2023; downgraded in May 2020).

Domestic corporate goods prices have been “rising” (unchanged; wording last changed in May 2025). 

Consumer prices are “rising moderately” (unchanged; wording last changed in March 2026).

Japan Week Ahead: BOJ on Hold Amid Mideast Conflict, US Trade Uncertainty, While Pointing to Need to Raise Policy Rate Further to Neutral Level

–July Tokyo CPI Seen Ticking Up Closer to BOJ’s 2% Target as Iran War Has Boosted Prices, Import Costs High on Yen’s Slide to Nearly Four-Decade Low
–June Factory Output to Pose 3rd Straight Rise amid Global Demand for Computer Chips, Non-Ferrous Metals, Easing Impact of US Tariffs on Autos

By Max Sato

(MaceNews) – The Trump administration’s new 10% to 12% worldwide tariffs replacing its temporary 10% import duties that have just expired may have only a limited impact on recovering Japanese exports but the renewed U.S. trade war on a global scale adds to the already high uncertainty over growth and inflation amid the lingering Mideast conflict. 

Some Japanese goods like sheets and soy sauce exported to the United States will see their tariff rates drop to 12.5%, the new rate for Japan set by Washington, while others such as LED (light-emitting diode) lamps and contact lenses are currently levied slightly lower duties. The 15% tariffs on automobiles, auto parts, steel and aluminum shipped from Japan is expected to stay in place.

Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Ryosei Akazawa, Japan’s chief trade negotiator, called the U.S. action “regrettable” at a news conference on Friday. He also said Tokyo had confirmed with Washington that Japan would not face any additional tariffs beyond those agreed upon last year. But judging from the erratic patterns of President Trump’s decision-making, it is still uncertain how the U.S. trade rows with the world will affect Japan’s wobbly economic recovery.

The latest U.S. punitive taxes on imports from 60 trading partners accounting for 99% of U.S. imports are based on its claim that they have inadequately enforced bans on goods produced by forced labor. Washington is also looking into whether 16 countries including Japan and China are overproducing, and as a result cutting prices and hurting U.S. firms in global markets.

Japan is already facing inflationary pressures from labor shortages, high import costs under the weak yen and elevated energy and commodities prices due to the Middle East conflict.

Against this backdrop, the Bank of Japan’s policymakers are expected to decide, possibly in a unanimous vote, to leave the policy interest rate at 1% after conducting their fifth interest rate hike in the current cycle last month. They have maintained a measured pace of rate increases, at about a six-month interval recently, except when they stood pat for 11 months to monitor the impact of the Trump tariffs last year.

In its June policy decision statement, the BOJ said it “will continue to raise the policy interest rate and adjust the degree of monetary accommodation” in response to developments in growth and inflation, noting that underlying consumer inflation is nearing the bank’s 2% price stability target and financial conditions are accommodative. The BOJ has been lifting the policy rate gradually toward a more neutral level estimated to be somewhat above 1%.

Tuesday, July 28
1400 JST (0500 GMT/0100 EDT Tuesday, July 28) – The Bank of Japan releases its core measures of consumer price index for June. The BOJ excludes institutional factors: the effects of sales tax rate changes, free education, fuel and utility subsidies, reduction in mobile phone charges in 2021 and travel subsidy programs during the pandemic.

Data from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications released on July 24 showed that consumer inflation accelerated slightly in July due to a smaller drop in gasoline prices and larger markups in other fuels, which limited the impact of a continued moderation in processed food markups. The year-on-year increase in the core CPI (excluding fresh food) accelerated to 1.6% after being unchanged at 1.4% in May and decelerating sharply to a four-year low of 1.4% in April from 1.8% in Mach.

The BOJ’s core CPI (excluding fresh food and institutional factors) rose 2.7% on the year in May after rising 2.8% in April while the annual rate of the government’s core CPI (excluding fresh food) was flat at 1.4% in May, thanks to fuel subsidies aimed at easing the impact of the Mideast conflict as well as free high school education that took effect in April.

The BOJ’s another core measure, the CPI minus fresh food, energy and institutional factors, posted a slower 2.1% increase on the year in May after rising 2.2% in April and 2.6% in March. The annual rate of the government’s core-core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) stood at 1.8% in May, easing further from 1.9% in April and 2.4% in March.

Wednesday, July 29
– TBA The Cabinet Office releases the government’s monthly economic report for July. Last month, it was released at around 1650 JST on June 30 (0750 GMT/0350 EDT the same day).

In the June report, the government continued to predict that the economy would stay on a gradual recovery track, pointing that its fuel subsidies and free high school education were helping ease inflation and hot weather was lifting consumer sentiment, but also warned that the Mideast conflict had triggered a spike in producer and import costs. It maintained its overview, saying that the economy is “recovering at a moderate pace but the impact of the situation in the Middle East needs a close attention.”

Thursday, July 30
– The Bank of Japan holds a two-day policy meeting.

Friday, July 31
0830 JST (2330 GMT/1930 EDT Thursday, July 30) The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications releases July Tokyo CPI.
Mace News median: total CPI +1.8% y/y (range: +1.8% to +1.9%) vs. June +1.7%; core CPI (ex-fresh food) +1.8% (range: +1.7% to +1.8%) vs. June +1.6%; core-core CPI (ex-fresh food, energy) +2.0% (range: +1.9% to +2.1%) vs. June +1.9%

Consumer inflation in Tokyo, a leading indicator of the national trend, is forecast to continue accelerating in July as the protracted depreciation of the yen has made imports more expensive and retailers are reflecting higher labor, materials, packaging and transportation costs amid widespread worker shortages and the lingering Mideast conflict.

All three key CPI measures is set to remain at or just below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target as revived fuel subsides have capped gasoline and diesel prices nationwide. In addition to city water subsides, families in the Tokyo metropolitan area also benefit from free daycare services.

The core measure (excluding fresh food) is forecast to post a 1.8% rise on year after the annual rate edged up to 1.6% in June and slowing to 1.3% in May from 1.5% in April, both which were the lowest since 0.8% in March 2022. The core rate hit a recent peak at 3.6% in May 2025, when processed food price hikes were sharp in the aftermath of domestic rice shortages.

The annual rate of the total CPI is also expected to rise to 1.8% after accelerating to 1.7% in June and easing to 1.4% in May from April’s 1.5%. The year-on-year increase in the core-core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy), which is not directly impacted by fuel subsidies, is seen ticking up further to 2.0% after rising to 1.9% in June and slowing to 1.6% in May from 1.9% previously.

The upward pressures from sustained wage hikes and the Iran war mitigated the price-cutting impact of nationwide fuel subsides in place since mid-March, which has capped the average regular gasoline price at ¥170 per liter. The Tokyo CPI data for June showed gasoline prices fell 1.3% on the year, with the pace of decline slowing from an 8.1% drop in May while the prices for propane were up 7.6% (the same as in May) and those for diesel rose 11.0% (vs. +9.8% in May), leading to a smaller 2.3% drop in overall energy prices in June, compared to a 3.7% fall in the prior month.

There is a downward pressure from the Tokyo metropolitan government’s four-month summertime program to wave its base water charges but its initial impact has faded as the Tokyo prefecture had a similar scheme last summer.

Friday, July 31
0830 JST (2330 GMT/1930 EDT Thursday, July 30) The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications releases the June unemployment rate.
Mace News median: 2.5% (range: 2.4% to 2.5%) vs. 2.5% in May, 2.5% in April, 2.7% in March, 2.6% in February, 2.7% in January, 2.6% from August to December 2025, 2.4% in July, which was a four-month low.


The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Japan is expected to remain low and stable at 2.5% in June after being steady in May, reflecting widespread labor shortages. It fell to the current level in April from 2.7% in March.

Labor shortages continue in the sectors with long work hours and lower pay, notably daycare, medical, transport and construction. Last year, unemployment was stuck at 2.6% from September to December after rising to the level in August from a five-month low of 2.4% in July.

Payrolls likely posted a fifth straight rise after marking a rare year-on-year drop in January. The increase in May was led by hotels/restaurants and medical/welfare services. Manufacturing jobs posted their first gain in many months. In recent months, employment gains have been in both regular and non-regular positions (sharp gains in women and non-regular jobs) after the total number of employed unexpectedly posted its first year-on-year drop in 42 months in January for one-off factors.

The government continues to describe employment conditions as “showing signs of improvement” in its latest monthly economic report for June, unchanged since the last upgrade for the category in June 2023.

Friday, July 31
0850 JST (2350 GMT/1950 EDT Thursday, July 30) The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry releases preliminary June industrial output, the outlook for July, August.
Mace News median: +0.5% m/m (range: +0.3% to +1.8%) vs. May revised to +0.1% from +0.5%; +3.4% y/y (range: +3.2% to +4.7%) vs. May revised to -2.1% from -1.7%

Japan’s industrial production is expected to post its third straight rise in June, up a modest 0.5% on the month, possibly led by a pickup in the auto sector as the base effect of stiff U.S. tariffs on vehicles and metals has waned. It also mirrors strong export demand for computer chips and non-ferrous metals. It would follow a downwardly revised slight 0.1% gain in May and a 0.5% rebound on a 0.4% dip in March.

Japan has increased crude oil imports from other regions to reduce its heavy reliance on the Middle East. The on-and-off blockade of Strait of Hormuz, the crucial pathway, choked off energy and commodities exports from the Mideast Gulf, causing shortages of naphtha and other materials and hurting output of plastics and resins used in vehicles, appliances and food packages.

Last month, the monthly survey by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry indicated that output would rise 2.6% on the month in June, led by a rebound in the production of equipment to produce flat panel displays, general machinery to make analytical instruments and electric/telecom products (laptop computers), all of which dropped in May. Factory output was projected to be flat in July.

The ministry has maintained its assessment that industrial output was “taking one step forward and one step back.” The last change was made in the July 2024 report, when it upgraded its view.

The focus is also on capital goods shipments (excluding transport equipment) for the April-June quarter after they rose a solid 1.9% in the first quarter on top of a 1.6% rebound in Q4. This segment of the industrial production data helps forecast how business investment performed in the Q2 GDP data, due Aug. 17, after unexpectedly slipping 0.7% on quarter in Q1 to trim 0.1 percentage point off GDP growth.

The gross domestic product is expected by economists to post a slower 0.8% annualized growth in Q2 following a 0.5% rise on quarter (1.8% annualized) in Q1, when rebounds in net exports and public works spending as well as resilient consumer spending led the second quarterly expansion, recovering from a 0.6% (2.3% annualized) contraction in the third quarter of 2025.

Friday, July 31
0850 JST (2350 GMT/1950 EDT Thursday, July 30) The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry releases preliminary June retail sales.
Mace News median: +2.6% y/y (range: +1.8% to +5.2%) vs. May revised to +5.0% from +5.3%; -1.7% m/m (range: -2.0% to -1.2%) vs. May revised to +1.7% from 1.9%

Japanese retail sales are forecast to post a modest 2.6% rise on the year in June, as demand for vehicles continued to pick up, generally high stock prices prompted consumers to shop for luxury goods and hot weather lifted sales of air conditioners and fans. Demand for big-screen TVs ahead of and during the FIFA World Cup soccer games from June 11 to July 19 also helped.

There is persistent solid demand for drugs/cosmetics from both domestic consumers and overseas visitors. By contrast, government subsidies have put a lid on retail prices of gasoline and diesel, exerting downward pressure on fuel sales.

Last month, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry maintained its assessment after a January upgrade, saying retail sales are “on a gradual uptrend.”

On the month, retail sales are forecast to mark their first drop in four months, down 1.7%, after a downwardly revised 1.7% gain in May.

Friday, July 31
c.1130 JST (c.0230 GMT Friday, July 31/c.2230 EDT Thursday, July 30) The Bank of Japan releases the outcome of its two-day policy board meeting in a monetary policy statement. It also releases the quarterly Outlook Report, in which board members update their medium-term growth and inflation projections as well as risk analysis.

The Bank of Japan’s nine-member board is widely expected to stand pat at its next meeting on July 30-31 after it decided to raise the target for the overnight interest rate to 1% from 0.75% in a 7 to 1 vote in June, citing growing upside risks to inflation triggered by the Mideast conflict. The bank is expected to raise rates further by year-end. The rate hike at the June15-16 meeting is the fifth in the current cycle that began in March 2024 and part of the gradual process to unwind large-scale monetary easing that lasted for about a decade since April 2013.

For a clearer trend in consumer inflation, BOJ officials are closely watching the bank’s own core measures that exclude the effects of institutional factors (sales tax cuts, energy subsidies, etc.), which are pointing to an uptrend in underlying inflation above the bank’s 2% target.

But the bank is in no hurry to follow up with a back-to-back rate hike as inflation expectations among firms are still around 2% and subsidies and other fiscal measures are expected to continue to offset some of the upward pressures on consumer prices exerted by rising costs of imports due to the weak yen, labor amid widespread worker shortages and transportation and packaging triggered by the Iran war. Bank officials also are looking at downside risks to consumer spending and business investment amid lingering geopolitical risks. The fate of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire remains uncertain, pending the safe reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the crucial pathway for energy and commodities exports from the Mideast Gulf.

Friday, July 31
1530-1630 JST (0630-0730 GMT/0230-0330 EDT Friday July 31) BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda holds a news conference to discuss the board’s decision. The focus is on how Ueda describes inflation expectations among households and businesses and whether he thinks upside risks to inflation have risen in recent weeks.

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CONTACT US/SALES

President, Mace News:

tony@macenews.com


Washington Bureau Chief:

denny@macenews.com


SUBSCRIPTIONS

Contact Mace News President
Tony Mace tony@macenews.com 
to find a customer- and markets-oriented brand of news coverage with a level of individualized service unique to the industry. A market participant told us he believes he has his own White House correspondent as Mace News provides breaking news and/or audio feeds, stories, savvy analysis, photos and headlines delivered how you want them. And more. And this is important because you won’t get it anywhere else. That’s MICRONEWS. We know how important to you are the short advisories on what’s coming up, whether briefings, statements, unexpected changes in schedules and calendars and anything else that piques our interest.

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